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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.37vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.20vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+3.74vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.66+2.37vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.95+0.61vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.36+5.45vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.82-1.18vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.53-0.55vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+2.07vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-3.15vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-1.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.22-3.00vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.49-3.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-5.83vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.38-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.37California Poly Maritime Academy1.9225.8%1st Place
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6.2University of California at Berkeley0.988.8%1st Place
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6.74University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.7%1st Place
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6.37Arizona State University0.668.8%1st Place
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5.61University of California at San Diego0.959.6%1st Place
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11.45University of California at Irvine-0.361.4%1st Place
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5.82California State University Channel Islands0.8210.0%1st Place
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7.45San Diego State University0.535.3%1st Place
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11.07University of California at Los Angeles-0.962.0%1st Place
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6.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.357.5%1st Place
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9.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.5%1st Place
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9.0University of California at Berkeley-0.223.5%1st Place
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9.68University of California at Santa Barbara-0.492.4%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Davis-0.194.7%1st Place
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12.3Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 25.8% | 20.1% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 9.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 17.1% | 22.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Florence Duff | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 6.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 17.9% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.