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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.49+4.55vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.42+3.54vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.31+2.32vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.19+2.56vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.69vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.53-1.23vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.94vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71+0.99vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.59-0.64vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.000.00vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.40+0.02vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.58-0.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.84-4.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-3.20vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.55-3.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55University of California at Irvine0.4911.7%1st Place
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5.54University of California at San Diego0.4210.7%1st Place
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5.32University of California at Berkeley0.3112.5%1st Place
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6.56San Diego State University0.198.0%1st Place
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6.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.0%1st Place
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4.77California Poly Maritime Academy0.5314.8%1st Place
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5.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.8612.0%1st Place
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8.99University of California at Santa Barbara-0.714.2%1st Place
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8.36Santa Clara University-0.595.1%1st Place
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10.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.003.0%1st Place
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11.02California State University Channel Islands-1.402.2%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Davis-1.581.5%1st Place
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8.76University of California at Berkeley-0.843.8%1st Place
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10.8University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.8%1st Place
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11.15Arizona State University-1.551.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 12.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Sam Jennings | 14.8% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 12.0% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nick Shand | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Paul Trudell | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 19.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 23.8% |
| Bianca Weber | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.