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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.49+4.39vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+2.70vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+2.10vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+2.58vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.19+1.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.31-0.55vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-1.58+4.60vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.84+0.77vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.42-3.53vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-0.59-1.50vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-1.12vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-1.40-0.88vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71-4.23vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-3.02vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.55-3.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39University of California at Irvine0.4911.8%1st Place
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4.7California Poly Maritime Academy0.5314.8%1st Place
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5.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.8611.7%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.4%1st Place
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6.53San Diego State University0.199.2%1st Place
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5.45University of California at Berkeley0.3111.7%1st Place
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11.6University of California at Davis-1.581.3%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Berkeley-0.844.8%1st Place
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5.47University of California at San Diego0.4211.7%1st Place
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8.5Santa Clara University-0.593.9%1st Place
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9.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.002.2%1st Place
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11.12California State University Channel Islands-1.401.7%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Santa Barbara-0.714.3%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Los Angeles-2.102.2%1st Place
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11.15Arizona State University-1.551.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sam Jennings | 14.8% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 11.7% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Owen Gormely | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Wilton Lawton | 11.7% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 24.4% |
| Bianca Weber | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| Nick Shand | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.