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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.49+4.65vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.42+3.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.73vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.19+2.64vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.31-0.63vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71+1.72vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.53-3.36vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.59-0.72vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-0.10vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.84-2.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.58-0.60vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.55-1.72vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.40-2.98vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65University of California at Irvine0.4910.0%1st Place
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5.47University of California at San Diego0.4211.5%1st Place
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6.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.836.5%1st Place
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6.64San Diego State University0.197.4%1st Place
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5.12University of California at Santa Cruz0.8612.8%1st Place
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5.37University of California at Berkeley0.3112.3%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Barbara-0.714.6%1st Place
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4.64California Poly Maritime Academy0.5316.2%1st Place
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8.28Santa Clara University-0.593.8%1st Place
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9.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.003.2%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Berkeley-0.843.9%1st Place
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11.4University of California at Davis-1.581.5%1st Place
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11.28Arizona State University-1.551.9%1st Place
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11.02California State University Channel Islands-1.402.5%1st Place
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10.94University of California at Los Angeles-2.102.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 11.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Owen Gormely | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Shand | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Sam Jennings | 16.2% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Bianca Weber | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 16.5% | 21.9% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 20.5% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.