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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bates College2.26+7.27vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.87+4.27vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.74+3.81vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.29+1.15vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.84+1.64vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.89+0.42vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.87+2.63vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.37-5.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.32-5.97vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy1.32-0.71vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire1.65-2.68vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.11-8.11vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-6.32vs Predicted
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16McGill University1.31-4.78vs Predicted
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17Williams College0.22-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.27Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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6.27University of Rhode Island2.870.1%1st Place
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6.81University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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5.15Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.64Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.42Bowdoin College2.890.1%1st Place
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9.63Middlebury College1.870.0%1st Place
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4.98Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.320.1%1st Place
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11.29Maine Maritime Academy1.320.0%1st Place
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10.32University of New Hampshire1.650.0%1st Place
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5.89Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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8.68Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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11.22McGill University1.310.0%1st Place
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13.41Williams College0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pierce | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Hughes | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Mumma | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Emily Billing | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Conor Lodge | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeff Goodrich | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Brown | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 4.5% |
| William Hutchings | 13.4% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Proctor | 12.3% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nemsdale | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 22.0% | 12.6% |
| Christopher Edwards | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| Bo McClatchy | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Richard Graef | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Charlotte Skinner | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 15.5% | 21.0% | 12.9% |
| Joshua Revkin | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 56.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.