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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.12vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+4.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.35+5.63vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University1.14+5.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.39+3.28vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.44-1.08vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.81+0.02vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.14+1.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.06+0.41vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.47-5.26vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.71-3.76vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.44-0.14vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.84vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.11+2.86vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.39-2.94vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.61-4.85vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine0.08-3.89vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-1.11-1.14vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-3.64vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-0.64-4.52vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.73-3.09vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-0.97-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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6.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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9.28Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Los Angeles1.390.0%1st Place
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4.92University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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7.02University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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9.28Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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4.74University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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11.86University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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10.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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16.86Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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12.06University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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11.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.610.0%1st Place
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13.11University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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16.86Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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15.36University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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15.48University of California at San Diego-0.640.0%1st Place
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17.91University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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16.35University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 19.3% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 15.0% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 21.8% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Kushnir | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Heller | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 21.8% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Sinclair | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 43.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Poynter | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.