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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Arizona State University1.14+8.24vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+2.81vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.35+5.57vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+0.12vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.61+6.19vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+4.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.06-0.83vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.39+0.18vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University1.14+0.24vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06-0.51vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.44-6.13vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.81-5.03vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.11+3.81vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine1.71-6.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.44-3.16vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.08-2.97vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.97-0.78vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-2.65vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.11-2.19vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-0.64-4.49vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.73-3.05vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego0.39-9.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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4.81University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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8.57University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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4.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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11.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.610.0%1st Place
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10.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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6.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Los Angeles1.390.1%1st Place
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9.24Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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6.97University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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16.81Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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7.47University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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11.84University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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13.03University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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16.22University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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15.35University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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16.81Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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15.51University of California at San Diego-0.640.0%1st Place
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17.95University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Smith | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 14.7% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 19.3% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Kushnir | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 13.9% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 24.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Heller | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Poynter | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 24.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Sinclair | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 20.2% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.