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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.49+4.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.42+3.55vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+1.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.14vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.19+1.72vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+0.55vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00+2.80vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands-1.40+2.85vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.59-0.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71-1.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-0.11vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.84-3.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.58-1.68vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.55-2.60vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.31-9.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of California at Irvine0.4911.0%1st Place
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5.55University of California at San Diego0.4211.1%1st Place
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4.6California Poly Maritime Academy0.5314.9%1st Place
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5.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.8614.1%1st Place
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6.72San Diego State University0.197.6%1st Place
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6.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.8%1st Place
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9.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.002.8%1st Place
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10.85California State University Channel Islands-1.402.4%1st Place
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8.62Santa Clara University-0.593.9%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Santa Barbara-0.714.0%1st Place
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10.89University of California at Los Angeles-2.102.5%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Berkeley-0.843.5%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Davis-1.581.6%1st Place
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11.4Arizona State University-1.551.6%1st Place
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5.4University of California at Berkeley0.3111.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Jennings | 14.9% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Gormely | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 17.9% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Nick Shand | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 16.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 22.5% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| Wilton Lawton | 11.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.