Race 1B

chris-loder

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Rian Bareuther 9.0% 10.7% 12.1% 10.5% 11.6% 11.8% 9.7% 7.5% 7.1% 5.2% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Tommy Holmberg 6.0% 7.5% 8.4% 9.6% 8.1% 8.2% 10.0% 10.8% 12.2% 8.9% 4.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2%
William Haeger 31.9% 24.7% 14.0% 10.8% 8.6% 4.3% 3.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Reney 3.9% 4.1% 6.6% 7.0% 6.3% 9.4% 10.1% 10.3% 11.1% 11.9% 10.1% 5.9% 2.7% 0.6%
Ryan White 6.5% 8.3% 8.9% 10.9% 9.0% 11.2% 12.0% 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 3.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Christopher Price 9.3% 9.5% 11.9% 12.2% 12.7% 10.6% 8.4% 8.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Laura Cartmel 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.9% 6.6% 6.0% 7.4% 14.1% 18.4% 18.5% 11.6%
Nicholas Dragone 3.4% 4.8% 4.5% 5.9% 5.3% 6.1% 6.9% 9.1% 11.0% 12.9% 12.1% 10.3% 5.9% 1.8%
Stephen Hansel 8.0% 7.6% 9.4% 9.7% 12.6% 10.2% 12.0% 8.5% 8.8% 6.7% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Timothy Lorenzen 2.4% 1.3% 3.7% 2.6% 4.2% 5.3% 4.8% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.1% 14.5% 11.5% 4.6%
Nathan Stevens 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% 3.8% 4.2% 6.6% 7.5% 9.2% 9.4% 10.4% 14.3% 14.4% 9.5% 2.7%
Mackenzie Spencer 13.9% 15.6% 15.6% 12.9% 11.9% 9.7% 7.8% 7.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Terry Clarke 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 4.5% 8.7% 13.8% 25.5% 34.1%
Eleanor Leonard 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 4.4% 7.6% 10.3% 22.7% 44.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.