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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.42+3.42vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.58vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.19+2.66vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine0.49+0.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.31-0.59vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University-0.59+1.49vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.53-3.41vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.05+1.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71-1.27vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.58+0.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.84-3.10vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.04vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.55-2.77vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.40-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92University of California at Santa Cruz0.8614.0%1st Place
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5.42University of California at San Diego0.4211.2%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.2%1st Place
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6.66San Diego State University0.197.1%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Irvine0.4912.2%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Berkeley0.3110.7%1st Place
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8.49Santa Clara University-0.594.7%1st Place
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4.59California Poly Maritime Academy0.5314.3%1st Place
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10.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.053.1%1st Place
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8.73University of California at Santa Barbara-0.713.7%1st Place
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11.54University of California at Davis-1.581.7%1st Place
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8.9University of California at Berkeley-0.844.2%1st Place
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10.96University of California at Los Angeles-2.102.0%1st Place
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11.23Arizona State University-1.551.9%1st Place
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10.99California State University Channel Islands-1.402.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Roberts | 14.0% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Owen Gormely | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Arin Bekem | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Sam Jennings | 14.3% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Katz | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.8% |
| Nick Shand | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 22.9% |
| Bianca Weber | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 17.4% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 16.0% | 20.7% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.