Race 3B

chris-loder

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mackenzie Spencer 14.5% 17.5% 14.9% 13.9% 9.4% 9.7% 6.6% 6.2% 3.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Tommy Holmberg 6.3% 6.4% 8.0% 9.5% 8.5% 10.2% 10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 9.3% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
Christopher Price 10.2% 10.8% 11.8% 12.0% 11.4% 12.2% 7.5% 9.6% 6.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Ryan White 7.5% 8.8% 8.5% 10.1% 11.2% 10.5% 10.0% 10.6% 9.0% 6.3% 3.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Nicholas Dragone 3.0% 2.1% 4.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.7% 8.9% 8.0% 10.6% 13.6% 13.1% 10.0% 5.8% 2.2%
Nathan Stevens 2.8% 3.1% 2.7% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% 7.8% 9.1% 8.9% 12.8% 14.3% 14.3% 8.5% 2.9%
Laura Cartmel 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8% 7.3% 8.5% 12.8% 19.2% 19.2% 10.5%
Stephen Hansel 9.0% 8.7% 10.2% 9.3% 11.8% 9.7% 9.9% 9.5% 8.8% 4.9% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Rian Bareuther 8.8% 10.0% 11.5% 10.9% 11.6% 10.5% 11.2% 7.9% 7.6% 5.0% 3.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Timothy Lorenzen 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.9% 3.9% 5.4% 6.7% 7.3% 9.9% 12.6% 14.4% 15.2% 11.0% 4.5%
William Haeger 28.9% 22.6% 17.7% 11.5% 10.0% 3.6% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Reney 3.7% 4.9% 5.2% 6.3% 7.6% 9.9% 10.2% 10.8% 11.1% 9.8% 9.9% 6.8% 2.6% 1.2%
Eleanor Leonard 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 3.0% 3.8% 5.7% 11.3% 22.8% 44.7%
Terry Clarke 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% 2.5% 2.3% 3.0% 5.8% 7.9% 13.2% 26.0% 33.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.