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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University4.08+1.86vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.39+2.19vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.70+2.06vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.64+4.23vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.75+0.06vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.97-1.60vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-0.32vs Predicted
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9Williams College1.47+0.77vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92-4.52vs Predicted
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11Bates College2.43-3.91vs Predicted
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12McGill University0.93-0.81vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy1.30-2.55vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.21-1.14vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut0.01-1.89vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College1.85-8.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.86Tufts University4.080.3%1st Place
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4.19University of Vermont3.390.2%1st Place
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6.06Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.23Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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6.06University of Rhode Island2.750.1%1st Place
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5.4Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.68Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
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9.77Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
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5.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.1%1st Place
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7.09Bates College2.430.1%1st Place
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11.19McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
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10.45Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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12.86University of New Hampshire0.210.0%1st Place
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13.11University of Connecticut0.010.0%1st Place
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8.57Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haeger | 30.4% | 23.0% | 16.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 15.2% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Stephen Hansel | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Reney | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% |
| Rian Bareuther | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Laura Cartmel | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Terry Clarke | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 23.4% | 35.4% |
| Eleanor Leonard | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 22.6% | 40.3% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.