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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.97+4.34vs Predicted
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2Bates College2.43+4.72vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92+2.47vs Predicted
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4Tufts University4.08-1.10vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.75+1.05vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.70-0.89vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.64+1.16vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.39-4.61vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut0.01+3.19vs Predicted
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11McGill University0.93+0.21vs Predicted
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12Williams College1.47-2.26vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy1.30-2.52vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College1.85-5.15vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-7.30vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.21-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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6.72Bates College2.430.1%1st Place
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5.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.1%1st Place
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2.9Tufts University4.080.3%1st Place
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6.05University of Rhode Island2.750.1%1st Place
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6.11Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.16Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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4.39University of Vermont3.390.1%1st Place
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13.19University of Connecticut0.010.0%1st Place
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11.21McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
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9.74Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
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10.48Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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8.85Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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7.7Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.0%1st Place
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12.7University of New Hampshire0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Price | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 5.5% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Rian Bareuther | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Haeger | 30.4% | 21.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 13.5% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eleanor Leonard | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 12.0% | 22.4% | 41.5% |
| Laura Cartmel | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 16.6% | 17.2% | 11.9% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 5.8% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Michael Reney | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Terry Clarke | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 25.0% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.