← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+3.21vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+5.02vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.29vs Predicted
-
4California Poly Maritime Academy2.56+1.65vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+1.14vs Predicted
-
6University of California at San Diego1.81+2.38vs Predicted
-
7California Poly Maritime Academy2.40-0.85vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+2.05vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+2.39vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles0.44+4.33vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-0.51vs Predicted
-
12California State University Monterey Bay0.84+0.66vs Predicted
-
13California State University Monterey Bay0.61+0.82vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.61-0.65vs Predicted
-
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.42-1.29vs Predicted
-
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-4.71vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-0.66+0.71vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Davis-0.42-0.94vs Predicted
-
20University of California at San Diego-0.62-1.78vs Predicted
-
21University of California at Los Angeles0.12-5.23vs Predicted
-
22University of California at San Diego0.39-7.42vs Predicted
-
23University of California at Davis0.42-8.35vs Predicted
-
24University of California at Santa Cruz-1.15-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.21University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
-
7.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
-
5.29University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
-
5.65California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
-
6.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
-
8.38University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
-
6.15California Poly Maritime Academy2.400.1%1st Place
-
10.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
-
11.39University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
-
14.33University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
-
10.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
-
12.66California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
-
13.82California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
-
13.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.610.0%1st Place
-
14.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.420.0%1st Place
-
12.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
18.71University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
-
18.06University of California at Davis-0.420.0%1st Place
-
18.22University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
-
15.77University of California at Los Angeles0.120.0%1st Place
-
14.58University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
-
14.65University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
-
20.1University of California at Santa Cruz-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 17.9% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 11.9% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Larsen | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| David Cornella | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Greg Kushnir | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Jeff Tolan | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| Alex Yeghiazarian | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 16.8% | 12.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| Bleiz Larzul | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Ry Ulmer-Strack | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 38.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.