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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.40+5.28vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.17vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.56+1.69vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+5.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-0.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.81+0.64vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+2.43vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39+0.12vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.61+2.91vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+0.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.42+5.00vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.42+0.19vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.61-1.10vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.42-1.47vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.84-4.22vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego0.39-3.15vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-0.63vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles0.44-5.61vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-0.62-3.55vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles0.12-7.12vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz-1.15-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28California Poly Maritime Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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4.17University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
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5.69California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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10.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
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6.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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8.64University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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10.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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13.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.610.0%1st Place
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12.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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18.0University of California at Davis-0.420.0%1st Place
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14.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.420.0%1st Place
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13.9California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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14.53University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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12.78California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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14.85University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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18.37University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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14.39University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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18.45University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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15.88University of California at Los Angeles0.120.0%1st Place
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20.1University of California at Santa Cruz-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larsen | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 12.4% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 19.3% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 11.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tristram Craig | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| David Cornella | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Greg Kushnir | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Alex Yeghiazarian | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| Jeff Tolan | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Parker Smith | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 18.2% | 17.7% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Grant Lin | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Bleiz Larzul | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.6% |
| Ry Ulmer-Strack | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 17.6% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.