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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+3.20vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.56+3.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+3.25vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.40+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego1.81+2.36vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-1.99vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.84+4.82vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39+1.17vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.61+3.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.62+7.72vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.61+1.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-1.48vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.42+3.65vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.50vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.42-1.55vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-7.89vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.44-4.38vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles0.12-4.56vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-2.41vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego0.39-7.45vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.42-8.34vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz-1.15-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
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5.79California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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6.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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6.19California Poly Maritime Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.96University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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8.36University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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5.01University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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12.82California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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10.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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13.62California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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18.72University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.610.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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17.65University of California at Davis-0.420.0%1st Place
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12.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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14.45University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
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14.62University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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15.44University of California at Los Angeles0.120.0%1st Place
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18.59University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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14.55University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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14.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.420.0%1st Place
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20.14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 18.7% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 8.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Larsen | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 14.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| David Cornella | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Grant Lin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| Greg Kushnir | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Ian Spilman | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alex Yeghiazarian | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 11.4% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Bleiz Larzul | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Jeff Tolan | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Ry Ulmer-Strack | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.