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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.49+3.02vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+1.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+4.10vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+1.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.88-2.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42+11.43vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+4.49vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+4.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.43+1.16vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43+4.32vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+5.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.45+5.85vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.56-3.54vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.30vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-3.97vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-0.80vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-0.23-4.68vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Barbara0.13-7.65vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego0.31-9.30vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-6.54vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.73-3.41vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-15.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.2%1st Place
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7.25California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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4.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
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6.71California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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3.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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18.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
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12.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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13.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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15.32University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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17.57University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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18.85University of California at Los Angeles-1.450.0%1st Place
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10.46California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.7California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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13.03University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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17.2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
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14.32University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.35University of California at Santa Barbara0.130.0%1st Place
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11.7University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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15.46University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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19.59University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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8.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobi Allen | 17.4% | 17.1% | 16.8% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 13.8% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 4.7% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 27.8% | 20.2% | 16.9% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 18.1% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% |
| Nellie Ponarul | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| Peter Schmidt | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Maille Kennedy | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| Samuel Sara | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Hayden Christensen | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 34.3% |
| Grace Carrick | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.