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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+3.56vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+1.16vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.49+1.05vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+2.61vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+2.17vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.95+2.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+6.14vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+4.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara0.13+3.50vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.14+2.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43+4.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.31-0.32vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.56-2.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-1.29vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.18-6.72vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.23-1.91vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-1.36vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-0.25vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego0.43-8.05vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.73-0.52vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.45-2.27vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42-4.33vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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3.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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4.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.2%1st Place
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6.61California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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7.17California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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8.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.950.0%1st Place
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13.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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12.5University of California at Santa Barbara0.130.0%1st Place
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12.4California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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15.26University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.68University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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10.7California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.71University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
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14.09University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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15.64University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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17.75University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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10.95University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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19.48University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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18.73University of California at Los Angeles-1.450.0%1st Place
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18.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
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17.15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 13.2% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 25.4% | 20.7% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 17.7% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gooding | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Hayden Christensen | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Alana McSween | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Sara | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 10.6% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 30.1% |
| Nellie Ponarul | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 17.6% | 22.3% |
| Maille Kennedy | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.