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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.14vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.43+12.98vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+5.21vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+0.44vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+2.16vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.95+2.90vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+6.11vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.58-1.24vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+3.28vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.14+2.43vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-6.87vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.31-0.25vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.56-2.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.13-1.72vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-1.74vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.73+3.43vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.23-2.80vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-0.25vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.45-1.54vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego0.43-9.84vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-6.49vs Predicted
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23University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-5.81vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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14.98University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.21University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
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4.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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7.16California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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8.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.950.0%1st Place
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13.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.76California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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12.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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12.43California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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4.13University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.2%1st Place
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11.75University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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10.72California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.28University of California at Santa Barbara0.130.0%1st Place
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13.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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19.43University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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14.2University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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17.75University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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18.46University of California at Los Angeles-1.450.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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15.51University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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17.19University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
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18.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 25.6% | 22.6% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Alexander Burrow | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 14.9% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gooding | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Cobi Allen | 17.1% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Christensen | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 31.4% |
| Samuel Sara | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 10.9% |
| Nellie Ponarul | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Maille Kennedy | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 9.5% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.