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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+4.67vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine0.49+4.03vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+7.89vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+1.17vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.42+0.89vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13-3.81vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University0.19+0.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.31-2.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.58+2.60vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.05+0.26vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.40+0.03vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University-0.59-3.30vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71-3.97vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.55-2.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.84-5.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67University of California at Santa Cruz0.867.8%1st Place
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6.03University of California at Irvine0.496.7%1st Place
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10.89University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.6%1st Place
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5.17California Poly Maritime Academy0.539.2%1st Place
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5.89University of California at San Diego0.427.1%1st Place
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2.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1343.0%1st Place
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7.02San Diego State University0.195.2%1st Place
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5.92University of California at Berkeley0.317.8%1st Place
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11.6University of California at Davis-1.580.9%1st Place
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10.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.051.1%1st Place
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11.03California State University Channel Islands-1.400.9%1st Place
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8.7Santa Clara University-0.593.1%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Santa Barbara-0.712.5%1st Place
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11.49Arizona State University-1.550.9%1st Place
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9.11University of California at Berkeley-0.842.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Roberts | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Arin Bekem | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| Sam Jennings | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Headington | 43.0% | 24.6% | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Wilton Lawton | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Luke Melvin | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 23.4% |
| Samantha Katz | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 8.6% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.8% | 17.3% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| Nick Shand | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 21.9% |
| Bianca Weber | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.