← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bates College2.43+5.82vs Predicted
-
2Northeastern University2.70+3.96vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92+1.43vs Predicted
-
5Dartmouth College2.97+0.37vs Predicted
-
6Yale University1.64+3.28vs Predicted
-
7Maine Maritime Academy1.30+3.26vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University4.08-5.15vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-1.23vs Predicted
-
10Williams College1.47-0.30vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island2.75-4.90vs Predicted
-
13McGill University0.93-1.74vs Predicted
-
14University of Vermont3.39-9.51vs Predicted
-
15Middlebury College1.85-6.13vs Predicted
-
16University of New Hampshire0.21-3.23vs Predicted
-
17University of Connecticut0.01-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.82Bates College2.430.1%1st Place
-
5.96Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
-
5.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.1%1st Place
-
5.37Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
-
9.28Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
-
10.26Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
-
2.85Tufts University4.080.3%1st Place
-
7.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.0%1st Place
-
9.7Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
-
6.1University of Rhode Island2.750.1%1st Place
-
11.26McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
-
4.49University of Vermont3.390.1%1st Place
-
8.87Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
-
12.77University of New Hampshire0.210.0%1st Place
-
13.08University of Connecticut0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Holmberg | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ryan White | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Rian Bareuther | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 9.1% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 4.0% |
| William Haeger | 31.6% | 22.9% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Reney | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% |
| Stephen Hansel | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Laura Cartmel | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 17.0% | 13.0% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 12.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Terry Clarke | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 25.5% | 32.1% |
| Eleanor Leonard | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 19.4% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.