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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.22vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.52+6.07vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.93+0.75vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+0.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.06+3.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+2.49vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+1.03vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.39-0.77vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.81-3.19vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.33-5.61vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.95vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+0.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.79-3.74vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.49+1.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley1.31-7.47vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.54-2.51vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.12-5.26vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.01-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22California State University Channel Islands2.770.2%1st Place
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8.07University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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3.75University of Southern California2.930.2%1st Place
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4.22California State University Channel Islands2.770.2%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.0%1st Place
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9.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Los Angeles1.390.0%1st Place
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6.81University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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5.39University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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10.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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13.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.26University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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16.24University of California at Irvine-1.490.0%1st Place
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8.53University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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14.49University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.74University of California at Los Angeles0.120.0%1st Place
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15.36University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 17.1% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 20.2% | 19.6% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 17.1% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 6.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Addison Whittet | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 21.4% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Bleiz Larzul | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 27.1% | 25.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.