← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92+4.43vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University4.08+0.80vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College2.97+2.25vs Predicted
-
4University of Vermont3.39+0.33vs Predicted
-
5Northeastern University2.70+1.24vs Predicted
-
6Yale University1.64+3.36vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-0.30vs Predicted
-
9Maine Maritime Academy1.30+1.23vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island2.75-4.06vs Predicted
-
11Bates College2.43-3.98vs Predicted
-
12Williams College1.47-2.26vs Predicted
-
13Middlebury College1.85-4.15vs Predicted
-
14University of Connecticut0.01-0.77vs Predicted
-
15University of New Hampshire0.21-2.23vs Predicted
-
16McGill University0.93-4.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.1%1st Place
-
2.8Tufts University4.080.3%1st Place
-
5.25Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
-
4.33University of Vermont3.390.1%1st Place
-
6.24Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
-
9.36Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
-
7.7Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
-
10.23Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
-
5.94University of Rhode Island2.750.1%1st Place
-
7.02Bates College2.430.1%1st Place
-
9.74Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
-
8.85Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
-
13.23University of Connecticut0.010.0%1st Place
-
12.77University of New Hampshire0.210.0%1st Place
-
11.13McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian Bareuther | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Haeger | 31.6% | 22.2% | 16.7% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 9.5% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 14.2% | 17.7% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Michael Reney | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 4.5% |
| Stephen Hansel | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Eleanor Leonard | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 21.3% | 44.6% |
| Terry Clarke | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 26.2% | 30.9% |
| Laura Cartmel | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 17.5% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.