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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13+1.11vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine0.49+3.98vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+2.69vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-1.58+7.64vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.19+1.96vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.53-0.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.42-1.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.84+1.15vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+2.06vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-0.59-1.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.71-1.91vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.55-0.67vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.40-1.83vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.05-3.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.31-9.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1343.9%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Irvine0.497.0%1st Place
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5.69University of California at Santa Cruz0.868.0%1st Place
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11.64University of California at Davis-1.580.7%1st Place
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6.96San Diego State University0.195.1%1st Place
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5.05California Poly Maritime Academy0.539.7%1st Place
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5.87University of California at San Diego0.427.3%1st Place
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9.15University of California at Berkeley-0.842.5%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.5%1st Place
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8.87Santa Clara University-0.592.4%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Santa Barbara-0.712.3%1st Place
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11.33Arizona State University-1.551.0%1st Place
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11.17California State University Channel Islands-1.400.9%1st Place
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10.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.051.7%1st Place
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5.86University of California at Berkeley0.316.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Headington | 43.9% | 27.8% | 13.7% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 17.8% | 23.3% |
| Owen Gormely | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Sam Jennings | 9.7% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 16.2% |
| Paul Trudell | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.9% |
| Nick Shand | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| Samantha Katz | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 9.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.