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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92+4.45vs Predicted
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2Bates College2.43+4.85vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.39+1.22vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.75+1.94vs Predicted
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6Tufts University4.08-3.07vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.97-1.63vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.70-1.91vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.85-0.32vs Predicted
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10Williams College1.47-0.30vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.64-1.70vs Predicted
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12McGill University0.93-0.75vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire0.21-0.06vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-6.02vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy1.30-4.78vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut0.01-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.1%1st Place
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6.85Bates College2.430.1%1st Place
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4.22University of Vermont3.390.1%1st Place
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5.94University of Rhode Island2.750.1%1st Place
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2.93Tufts University4.080.3%1st Place
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5.37Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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6.09Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.68Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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9.7Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
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9.3Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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11.25McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
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12.94University of New Hampshire0.210.0%1st Place
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7.98Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.0%1st Place
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10.22Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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13.08University of Connecticut0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian Bareuther | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 15.0% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Haeger | 30.2% | 22.2% | 16.7% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Laura Cartmel | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 17.7% | 16.3% | 12.8% |
| Terry Clarke | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 25.8% | 33.6% |
| Michael Reney | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 5.0% |
| Eleanor Leonard | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 11.3% | 23.4% | 40.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.