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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.5%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+2.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.09+6.48vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+2.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-1.48+11.25vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.35+10.57vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.91+6.35vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+0.63vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+6.44vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+6.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-3.06vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.87+2.11vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.24+2.56vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.81+4.35vs Predicted
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14-1.22+0.41vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.75-3.27vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-2.21+3.36vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.79+0.32vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.18-3.96vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-1.42-3.06vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.36-3.92vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-8.46vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.47-6.69vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.65-6.46vs Predicted
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24Santa Clara University-1.92-5.98vs Predicted
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25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.35-10.38vs Predicted
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26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.53-10.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.22University of California at Santa Cruz1.4527.6%1st Place
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8.48University of California at Berkeley-0.095.5%1st Place
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5.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.9113.9%1st Place
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15.25University of California at Davis-1.481.6%1st Place
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15.57University of California at San Diego-1.351.5%1st Place
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12.35San Diego State University-0.912.2%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.078.1%1st Place
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14.44University of California at Los Angeles-1.092.5%1st Place
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15.1California State University Monterey Bay-1.321.7%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.177.6%1st Place
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13.11University of California at San Diego-0.872.0%1st Place
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14.56San Diego State University-1.242.0%1st Place
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17.35California State University Channel Islands-1.810.9%1st Place
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14.41-1.221.5%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Berkeley-0.752.9%1st Place
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19.36Arizona State University-2.210.8%1st Place
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17.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.791.4%1st Place
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14.04San Diego State University-1.181.2%1st Place
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15.94University of California at Irvine-1.421.8%1st Place
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16.08University of California at Irvine-1.361.5%1st Place
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12.54University of California at Los Angeles-0.943.5%1st Place
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15.31University of California at San Diego-1.472.1%1st Place
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16.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.651.7%1st Place
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18.02Santa Clara University-1.920.8%1st Place
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14.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.352.1%1st Place
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15.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.531.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Baylis | 27.6% | 21.6% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 13.9% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Makler | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| Maximus Suh | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Juan Alcala | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Caden Domingo | 8.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Liam Williams | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Maggie McEachen | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bussey | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% |
| Tony Gao | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Veja Zaprauskis | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 20.8% |
| Liam Parker | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% |
| Joshua Barraza | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
| Matthew Stank | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| Emre Gurdal | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nate Powers | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Isaac Ericsson | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% |
| Luca Kennedy | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 12.2% |
| Gabriel Peralta | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Alejandro Fernandez | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.