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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.57+2.76vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.98+0.74vs Predicted
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3University of North Carolina at Wilmington0.34+3.25vs Predicted
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4The Citadel0.33+2.33vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.53-1.11vs Predicted
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6University of North Carolina-0.24+1.89vs Predicted
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7Clemson University-0.15+0.91vs Predicted
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8University of South Carolina-0.41+0.54vs Predicted
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9Clemson University-0.52+0.09vs Predicted
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10University of North Carolina-0.46-0.88vs Predicted
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11Duke University0.06-3.72vs Predicted
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12University of Georgia-0.80-2.28vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.77-1.00vs Predicted
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14University of Tennessee-1.90-1.55vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.21-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76North Carolina State University1.5718.0%1st Place
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2.74College of Charleston1.9829.5%1st Place
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6.25University of North Carolina at Wilmington0.346.8%1st Place
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6.33The Citadel0.336.2%1st Place
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3.89North Carolina State University1.5316.7%1st Place
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7.89University of North Carolina-0.243.6%1st Place
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7.91Clemson University-0.153.8%1st Place
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8.54University of South Carolina-0.413.1%1st Place
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9.09Clemson University-0.522.1%1st Place
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9.12University of North Carolina-0.461.6%1st Place
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7.28Duke University0.065.0%1st Place
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9.72University of Georgia-0.802.2%1st Place
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12.0University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.770.6%1st Place
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12.45University of Tennessee-1.900.6%1st Place
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13.04University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.210.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gosselin | 18.0% | 16.8% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Mckenzie | 29.5% | 25.2% | 16.8% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Simpson | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Usher | 16.7% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Bergendahl | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Ettlemyer | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| William Avery | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| May Proctor | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Ian Hoogenboom | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Sobering | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% |
| Tonya Hakim | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 21.3% | 22.2% |
| Kyle Shrewsbury | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 24.3% | 27.4% |
| Julia Morash | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 22.0% | 40.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.