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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of North Carolina at Wilmington0.34+5.31vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.53+1.86vs Predicted
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3University of North Carolina-0.24+4.99vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.98-1.15vs Predicted
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5Clemson University-0.52+3.97vs Predicted
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6The Citadel0.33+0.17vs Predicted
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7Clemson University-0.15+0.80vs Predicted
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8University of North Carolina-0.46+1.06vs Predicted
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9University of Georgia-0.80+0.68vs Predicted
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10Duke University0.06-2.64vs Predicted
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11University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.21+2.07vs Predicted
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12University of South Carolina-0.41-3.61vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.77-0.74vs Predicted
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14University of Tennessee-1.90-1.57vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.57-11.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31University of North Carolina at Wilmington0.346.2%1st Place
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3.86North Carolina State University1.5318.2%1st Place
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7.99University of North Carolina-0.243.5%1st Place
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2.85College of Charleston1.9828.0%1st Place
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8.97Clemson University-0.522.5%1st Place
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6.17The Citadel0.336.8%1st Place
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7.8Clemson University-0.153.7%1st Place
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9.06University of North Carolina-0.462.5%1st Place
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9.68University of Georgia-0.802.2%1st Place
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7.36Duke University0.063.5%1st Place
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13.07University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.210.2%1st Place
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8.39University of South Carolina-0.412.5%1st Place
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12.26University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.770.7%1st Place
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12.43University of Tennessee-1.900.7%1st Place
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3.78North Carolina State University1.5718.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Simpson | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Usher | 18.2% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Charles Mckenzie | 28.0% | 24.0% | 17.8% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Avery | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Bergendahl | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| May Proctor | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Oliver Sobering | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Ian Hoogenboom | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Julia Morash | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 39.5% |
| Andrew Ettlemyer | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Tonya Hakim | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 22.8% | 23.4% |
| Kyle Shrewsbury | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 23.2% | 28.1% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 18.9% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.