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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+3.59vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.10+6.12vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.39+4.18vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.52+1.86vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.48+0.90vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.81+2.25vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.78-2.04vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.38-1.95vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.90-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.86-1.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.68-2.33vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.29-5.41vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.33-6.67vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.53-2.20vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.90-7.03vs Predicted
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17Cornell University-1.25-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.2%1st Place
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8.12Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.18Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.86Brown University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.9Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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9.25Georgetown University2.810.0%1st Place
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5.96College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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7.05Harvard University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.82University of Rhode Island2.900.0%1st Place
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9.08University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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9.67U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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7.59University of South Florida3.290.1%1st Place
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7.33Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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12.8University of Michigan1.530.0%1st Place
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8.97Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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15.84Cornell University-1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 17.5% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Wilson | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lipschitz | 6.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Briana Provancha | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 0.4% |
| Shannon Heausler | 12.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Powers | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Bethany Leonard | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 0.2% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 0.4% |
| Sara Burke | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 0.6% |
| Abby Featherstone | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Kelsey Dubois | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 46.2% | 3.9% |
| Emilie Mademann | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bick | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 94.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.