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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+1.77vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.88+3.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.95vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33-1.15vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.10+1.22vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-0.83+0.57vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.85-2.87vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.11-2.10vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.78-5.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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5.24University of Southern California0.880.0%1st Place
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2.05University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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2.85University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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6.22Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.57Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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5.13University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.9Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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5.25University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristram Craig | 22.2% | 26.3% | 21.3% | 17.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Simonini | 4.0% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.4% |
| Neil Stapleton | 41.1% | 29.2% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 20.5% | 23.8% | 24.8% | 17.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 16.3% | 23.0% | 19.8% | 9.4% |
| Joseph Elvig | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 31.8% | 35.2% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 23.0% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 0.7% |
| Conor McGee | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 11.1% | 24.3% | 49.9% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.4% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 17.8% | 21.8% | 18.0% | 7.9% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.