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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.02vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.88+3.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.44-0.22vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.10+2.25vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.33-2.13vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.85-1.89vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.11-1.04vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.83-2.46vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.78-5.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.02University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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5.25University of Southern California0.880.0%1st Place
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2.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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6.25Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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2.87University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.11University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.96Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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7.54Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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5.23University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 42.5% | 29.6% | 16.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Simonini | 3.2% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 19.1% | 21.0% | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
| Tristram Craig | 21.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 23.6% | 21.1% | 7.6% |
| Peter Wong | 20.9% | 25.8% | 21.7% | 16.3% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.1% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 21.2% | 18.6% | 16.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Conor McGee | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 24.5% | 52.0% |
| Joseph Elvig | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 30.5% | 34.5% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.6% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 18.5% | 21.9% | 16.0% | 9.0% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.