Race 5A

long-beach-black-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Peter Wong 20.8% 21.6% 25.1% 16.5% 10.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Tristram Craig 18.3% 25.1% 24.4% 18.3% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Chad Hardgrove 1.4% 2.9% 4.1% 6.7% 11.3% 18.8% 24.6% 21.4% 8.8%
Neil Stapleton 44.4% 29.3% 15.8% 7.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hollis Barth 4.4% 7.2% 10.9% 15.8% 19.4% 18.1% 14.5% 7.8% 1.9%
Olivia Gebelein 4.3% 5.4% 7.7% 14.6% 19.3% 23.0% 16.9% 7.2% 1.6%
Alan Simonini 5.0% 5.8% 8.6% 15.0% 21.4% 19.1% 15.9% 7.5% 1.7%
Joseph Elvig 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 3.6% 3.9% 7.2% 14.5% 30.5% 36.3%
Conor McGee 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 3.6% 5.5% 10.8% 24.9% 49.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.