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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.04vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.89vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.88+2.11vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33-1.17vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-0.83+2.50vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.78-0.81vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.10-1.65vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.85-3.83vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.11-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.04University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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2.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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5.11University of Southern California0.880.0%1st Place
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2.83University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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7.5Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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5.19University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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6.35Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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5.17University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.91Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 42.6% | 28.1% | 17.5% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 18.2% | 26.6% | 23.0% | 19.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alan Simonini | 4.5% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 19.7% | 20.7% | 15.1% | 8.5% | 1.1% |
| Peter Wong | 22.4% | 22.4% | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Elvig | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 28.9% | 35.2% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 19.7% | 21.3% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 25.7% | 20.9% | 9.3% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 19.8% | 20.0% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 1.8% |
| Conor McGee | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 10.2% | 24.6% | 51.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.