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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+1.78vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.12vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.85+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.88+1.02vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78+0.16vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-0.83+1.58vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.33-4.04vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.10-1.69vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.11-1.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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2.12University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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5.18University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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5.02University of Southern California0.880.1%1st Place
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5.16University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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7.58Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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2.96University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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6.31Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.89Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristram Craig | 24.1% | 23.2% | 22.6% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 38.5% | 30.2% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.4% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 17.9% | 21.7% | 17.7% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| Alan Simonini | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 1.5% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 20.7% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% |
| Joseph Elvig | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 31.4% | 35.4% |
| Peter Wong | 19.5% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 18.4% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 18.6% | 24.9% | 19.5% | 9.4% |
| Conor McGee | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 25.4% | 49.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.