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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.04vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.78+3.40vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.44-0.21vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33-1.15vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.880.00vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.85-0.87vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.83-0.38vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.11-2.11vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.10-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.04University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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5.4University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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2.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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2.85University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.0University of Southern California0.880.0%1st Place
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5.13University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.62Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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7.89Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.29Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 41.2% | 30.8% | 15.4% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 3.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 16.0% | 17.5% | 23.0% | 17.7% | 9.4% | 2.1% |
| Tristram Craig | 22.0% | 23.8% | 25.2% | 15.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 21.5% | 23.0% | 24.7% | 16.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alan Simonini | 4.1% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 2.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.3% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 20.3% | 21.2% | 16.7% | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| Joseph Elvig | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 31.2% | 36.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 23.5% | 50.4% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 24.1% | 21.4% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.