Race 11A

long-beach-black-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Neil Stapleton 42.9% 28.9% 15.2% 8.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Wong 17.2% 22.0% 24.9% 18.7% 9.9% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Olivia Gebelein 4.0% 5.4% 8.0% 14.2% 17.7% 21.5% 17.6% 9.3% 2.3%
Alan Simonini 5.2% 6.0% 9.5% 15.2% 21.5% 19.3% 15.5% 6.6% 1.2%
Hollis Barth 4.7% 6.3% 10.9% 15.9% 17.4% 20.9% 12.9% 8.8% 2.2%
Tristram Craig 22.1% 26.4% 24.0% 15.1% 8.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Chad Hardgrove 2.0% 2.8% 3.7% 7.2% 12.2% 16.0% 25.9% 20.8% 9.4%
Ryan Henry 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 2.9% 5.7% 7.9% 14.8% 32.6% 31.3%
Conor McGee 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.8% 5.2% 10.7% 21.3% 53.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.