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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+4.59vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.45vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.31vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.27+3.03vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.47+5.08vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia2.39+0.59vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.24+0.02vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+2.40vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.87+3.42vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.33vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.71-1.51vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.70-2.89vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.94-1.27vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-6.69vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.09-3.45vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy0.51-2.53vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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5.18University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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5.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.03Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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11.08Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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7.59University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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8.02Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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11.4Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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13.42William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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8.67SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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10.49Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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12.73SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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8.31Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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12.55Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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14.47U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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13.61Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Shanahan | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 16.2% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| Christopher Craven | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| Peter Maes | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Amanda Attardi | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Andrew Baird | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Robert Whitaker | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% |
| Michael Danko | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 29.5% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.