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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.18vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.48vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.18+5.53vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+0.31vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.14+3.47vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook0.94+7.03vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.24+1.11vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.27-0.06vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia2.39-1.50vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-4.38vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.47+0.21vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-0.32vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.70-2.94vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.87-1.05vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.09-2.51vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.72-2.18vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.71-6.65vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy0.51-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.53Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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4.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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8.47SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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13.03SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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8.11Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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7.94Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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7.5University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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11.21Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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11.68Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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10.06University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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12.95William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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12.49Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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13.82Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.35Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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14.28U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 12.9% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baird | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 18.8% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Maes | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 15.1% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Craven | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Robert Whitaker | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| Amanda Attardi | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Michael Danko | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 18.1% | 25.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.