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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+4.56vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.12vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia2.39+4.75vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.14+4.45vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+0.39vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.65vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.71+3.18vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.21+0.14vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+2.32vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.09+2.68vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.27-2.81vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia1.70-1.47vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-4.75vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.87-1.06vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.47-3.94vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.51-1.55vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.94-3.90vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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5.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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7.75University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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8.45SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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4.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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10.18Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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8.14Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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11.32Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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12.68Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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8.25Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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12.94William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.06Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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14.45U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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13.1SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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13.55Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 11.5% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Maes | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 17.3% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Austin Powers | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Robert Whitaker | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 9.6% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Rodman Brown | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Andrew Baird | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Michael Danko | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 29.0% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 15.4% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.