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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia2.39+6.79vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.14+6.76vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.47+8.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+0.35vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.05vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.27+1.98vs Predicted
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7William and Mary0.87+6.18vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-2.68vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University2.24-0.96vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-1.40vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-5.53vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-0.32vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.71-2.97vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.70-4.04vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.94-2.08vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.51-1.54vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.09-4.41vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.79University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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8.76SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.29Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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4.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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5.05University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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7.98Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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13.18William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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5.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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8.04Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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8.6Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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11.68Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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10.03Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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12.92SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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14.46U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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12.59Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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13.54Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Craven | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Peter Maes | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
| Charles Lomax | 17.8% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 14.3% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Baird | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Smith | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 12.0% |
| Michael Danko | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 27.9% |
| Robert Whitaker | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.