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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+3.53vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.14+6.79vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia2.39+4.78vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University2.24+4.04vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.87+8.12vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-0.57vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.96vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.47+2.99vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.74vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.27-1.73vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.70-0.57vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy0.51+2.66vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.94-0.18vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.09-1.84vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.71-4.88vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-4.53vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-3.12vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.18-9.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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8.79SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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7.78University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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8.04Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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13.12William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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5.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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5.04University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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10.99Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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5.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.27Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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10.43University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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14.66U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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12.82SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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12.16Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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10.12Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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11.47Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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13.88Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 16.5% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Maes | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Craven | 5.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 14.1% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 12.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 13.8% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 11.7% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Michael Danko | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 30.7% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 13.3% |
| Robert Whitaker | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 7.6% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 15.0% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| Andrew Baird | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.