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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+4.64vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.14vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.48vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia2.39+3.50vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.27+2.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.62vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.47+4.07vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.71+2.13vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia1.70+1.19vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+1.57vs Predicted
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11William and Mary0.87+2.32vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-3.35vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University2.21-4.87vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.09-1.80vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-6.52vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.72-2.25vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.94-3.87vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy0.51-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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5.14University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.5University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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7.99Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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4.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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11.07Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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10.13Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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10.19University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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11.57Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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13.32William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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8.65Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.13Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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12.2Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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8.48SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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13.75Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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13.13SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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14.24U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Shanahan | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 11.0% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 16.8% | 17.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 16.2% |
| Andrew Baird | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Austin Powers | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Robert Whitaker | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.1% |
| Peter Maes | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 19.8% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.6% |
| Michael Danko | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 26.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.