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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University2.24+7.38vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.15vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.27+5.24vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+1.35vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+0.33vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.59vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18+1.36vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.47+3.04vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia1.70+1.22vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.39-2.17vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.71-0.69vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy0.51+2.61vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.09-0.65vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.87-1.07vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-6.58vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-4.58vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.94-3.87vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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5.15University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.24Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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5.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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5.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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4.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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8.36Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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11.04Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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10.22University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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7.83University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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10.31Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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14.61U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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12.35Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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12.93William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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8.42SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.42Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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13.13SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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13.54Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Van Beurden | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 13.0% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 12.3% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 16.5% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baird | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Rodman Brown | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Michael Danko | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 31.6% |
| Robert Whitaker | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.1% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Peter Maes | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 5.0% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 12.2% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.