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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+4.57vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.13vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia2.39+4.79vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.27+3.89vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-0.66vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia1.70+4.27vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18+1.34vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.21+0.20vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.14-0.57vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-4.50vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.94+2.17vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.47-0.60vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.71-2.97vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy0.51+0.13vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.87-1.79vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-4.57vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.09-4.34vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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5.13University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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7.89Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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4.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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10.27University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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8.2Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.43SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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5.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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13.17SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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11.4Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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10.03Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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14.13U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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13.21William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.43Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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12.66Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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13.53Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Shanahan | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 11.5% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Charles Lomax | 18.5% | 18.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rodman Brown | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Baird | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Austin Powers | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Peter Maes | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Carolyn Smith | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 4.7% |
| Amanda Attardi | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Michael Danko | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 24.8% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 14.4% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% |
| Robert Whitaker | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 9.9% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 18.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.