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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.75vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.27+4.29vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.50+2.50vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.19vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook2.59+0.16vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49-0.59vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.27+2.21vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.10+5.17vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.23+0.31vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.82-2.38vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.87-3.59vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia0.16+0.83vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.81+1.83vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.05-1.31vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.80-4.40vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-0.32-2.08vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.39-5.01vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology-2.32-0.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.29Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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5.5Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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5.16SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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5.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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9.21Drexel University1.270.0%1st Place
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13.17William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.31SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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7.62Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Pennsylvania1.870.1%1st Place
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12.83University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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14.83Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.69Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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10.6Christopher Newport University0.800.0%1st Place
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13.92U. S. Military Academy-0.320.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
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17.12Stevens Institute of Technology-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 18.9% | 18.8% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Bankert | 5.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alec Chicoine | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.9% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 11.3% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John M. Joyce | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% |
| James Keegan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Firth | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 3.1% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 30.9% | 11.1% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 2.2% |
| Benjamin Kempton | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Albert Biddle | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 5.2% |
| Colleen Roney | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Bloomgren | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 74.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.