← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University2.50+4.60vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.72vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.38vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+1.39vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.27+1.03vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.79vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.80+3.67vs Predicted
-
8Christopher Newport University1.82-0.67vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia0.16+3.59vs Predicted
-
10University of Virginia0.39+2.06vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania1.87-3.59vs Predicted
-
12Drexel University1.27-2.59vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College1.23-3.80vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University0.05-1.36vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Military Academy-0.32-1.14vs Predicted
-
16William and Mary-0.10-2.66vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University-0.81-1.98vs Predicted
-
18Stevens Institute of Technology-2.32-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.6Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
-
3.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
-
4.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
-
6.03Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
-
5.21SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
-
10.67Christopher Newport University0.800.0%1st Place
-
7.33Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
-
12.59University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
-
12.06University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
-
7.41University of Pennsylvania1.870.1%1st Place
-
9.41Drexel University1.270.0%1st Place
-
9.2SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
-
12.64Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
-
13.86U. S. Military Academy-0.320.0%1st Place
-
13.34William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
-
15.02Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
-
17.13Stevens Institute of Technology-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Chicoine | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 18.0% | 19.3% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 14.8% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Bankert | 8.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Kempton | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Anders Hudson | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Firth | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 1.2% |
| Colleen Roney | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 0.3% |
| Keen Butcher | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| John M. Joyce | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| James Keegan | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 2.1% |
| Albert Biddle | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 18.7% | 4.2% |
| Patrick Firth | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 4.3% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% |
| Ryan Bloomgren | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 10.1% | 75.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.