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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.29vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+3.46vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook2.59+2.18vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-0.46vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia0.39+6.44vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.50-0.71vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.27-1.11vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.82-0.90vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.87-1.96vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.16+2.31vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.80-0.57vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-0.19+1.41vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.23-4.08vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.05-1.69vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.10-2.04vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-1.21vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-0.32-3.38vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology-2.32-0.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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5.18SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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3.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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11.44University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
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5.29Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.89Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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7.1Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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7.04University of Pennsylvania1.870.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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10.43Christopher Newport University0.800.0%1st Place
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13.41Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.92SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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12.31Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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12.96William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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14.79Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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13.62U. S. Military Academy-0.320.0%1st Place
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17.03Stevens Institute of Technology-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 15.4% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 22.0% | 20.8% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Roney | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Alec Chicoine | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Bankert | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Firth | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Kempton | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 4.9% |
| James Keegan | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 2.1% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 27.1% | 12.4% |
| Albert Biddle | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Bloomgren | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 10.9% | 72.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.