← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University2.50+4.42vs Predicted
-
2Christopher Newport University1.82+5.45vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+2.41vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.87+3.01vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.27+0.87vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.83vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University0.05+5.60vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College1.23+0.90vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia0.39+2.60vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-6.31vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University0.28+0.98vs Predicted
-
12Drexel University-0.19+1.47vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Stony Brook2.59-8.04vs Predicted
-
14William and Mary-0.10-1.23vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Military Academy-0.32-1.44vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University-0.81-1.18vs Predicted
-
17University of Virginia0.87-6.72vs Predicted
-
18Stevens Institute of Technology-2.32-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.42Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
-
7.45Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
-
5.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
-
7.01University of Pennsylvania1.870.1%1st Place
-
5.87Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
-
4.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
-
12.6Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
-
8.9SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
-
11.6University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
-
3.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
-
11.98Christopher Newport University0.280.0%1st Place
-
13.47Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
-
4.96SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
-
12.77William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
-
13.56U. S. Military Academy-0.320.0%1st Place
-
14.82Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
-
10.28University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
-
17.05Stevens Institute of Technology-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Chicoine | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Bankert | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.8% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 1.7% |
| James Keegan | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Roney | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Tara | 21.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Locke | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 5.1% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 12.0% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% |
| Albert Biddle | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 3.5% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 27.9% | 12.2% |
| Jordan Cornell | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bloomgren | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 11.5% | 72.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.