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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.27vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.64vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.27+3.04vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.50+1.19vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+0.28vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.87+1.14vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.82+0.22vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.39+3.49vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.10+4.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook2.59-4.78vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.87-0.70vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-0.19+1.48vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-0.32+0.49vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.05-1.65vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.23-6.02vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.28-4.02vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.81-2.18vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology-2.32-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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3.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.04Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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5.19Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.28St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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7.14University of Pennsylvania1.870.1%1st Place
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7.22Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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11.49University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
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13.04William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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5.22SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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10.3University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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13.48Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.49U. S. Military Academy-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.35Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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8.98SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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11.98Christopher Newport University0.280.0%1st Place
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14.82Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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17.08Stevens Institute of Technology-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 16.3% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 18.2% | 20.1% | 16.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Bankert | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alec Chicoine | 11.2% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Roney | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 2.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Cornell | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 18.3% | 12.6% | 4.7% |
| Albert Biddle | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 4.6% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 1.9% |
| James Keegan | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Locke | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 17.0% | 29.0% | 11.4% |
| Ryan Bloomgren | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 10.7% | 73.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.