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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+3.56vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.78+3.83vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.38+4.21vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.48+3.02vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.52+1.71vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.29+0.62vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.33-0.52vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.86-0.12vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.10-1.85vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.90-2.06vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.81-2.84vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.90-4.13vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.68-4.35vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.53-2.19vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University3.39-8.78vs Predicted
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17Cornell University-1.85-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.2%1st Place
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5.83College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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7.21Harvard University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.02Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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6.71Brown University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.62University of South Florida3.290.1%1st Place
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7.48Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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8.88University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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8.15Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.94University of Rhode Island2.900.0%1st Place
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9.16Georgetown University2.810.0%1st Place
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8.87Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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12.81University of Michigan1.530.0%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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15.91Cornell University-1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 16.8% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Heausler | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Powers | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Briana Provancha | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lipschitz | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Abby Featherstone | 6.6% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| Genoa Warner | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Bethany Leonard | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Burke | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 0.1% |
| Emilie Mademann | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 0.1% |
| Sara Burke | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 0.5% |
| Kelsey Dubois | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 15.0% | 47.2% | 2.0% |
| Morgan Wilson | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Isa Betancourt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 96.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.