Race 4A

saisa-sp

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Geoffrey Nelson 26.7% 23.5% 18.5% 12.0% 8.6% 5.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jack Famiglietti 14.9% 18.2% 13.8% 15.1% 12.3% 9.6% 7.9% 5.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Dean Nixon 7.0% 5.8% 7.9% 10.1% 10.5% 11.1% 12.3% 12.0% 10.5% 7.6% 4.3% 0.9%
Sophie Salomon 4.2% 6.2% 8.7% 7.7% 11.2% 11.5% 12.2% 11.4% 11.3% 8.1% 5.6% 1.9%
Giancarlo Falconi 6.1% 7.8% 8.2% 9.3% 10.1% 11.7% 12.4% 11.4% 9.4% 7.0% 5.1% 1.5%
Nelson Millett 2.5% 2.6% 4.5% 5.3% 5.6% 5.2% 8.4% 12.0% 12.6% 15.3% 16.7% 9.3%
Benjamin Tino 4.0% 3.4% 4.5% 5.5% 7.8% 8.0% 9.0% 11.1% 12.8% 15.3% 13.0% 5.6%
Victoria Caba 1.7% 2.9% 3.7% 3.5% 4.9% 6.3% 6.6% 8.2% 13.0% 12.9% 22.8% 13.5%
Samuel Normington 20.8% 19.8% 16.0% 14.7% 10.9% 7.9% 5.3% 2.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Sara Simon 8.4% 6.0% 9.2% 9.9% 10.6% 12.2% 11.7% 10.8% 9.0% 7.5% 4.3% 0.4%
Kameron Boike 3.1% 2.9% 4.3% 5.2% 6.1% 8.6% 8.4% 11.9% 12.8% 16.9% 13.3% 6.5%
Jeroen Poelstra 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 4.2% 7.7% 14.4% 60.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.