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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+4.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.50+3.32vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.60vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+6.25vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.32+1.00vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.52-0.66vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+3.40vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06+2.62vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University0.59+3.81vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.56+2.98vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.78+0.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.62-3.42vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands0.37+0.83vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.56-1.02vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.58-2.20vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.43-2.71vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.66+0.39vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii1.65-9.75vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley0.31-4.78vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz-0.20-4.03vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego0.31-7.06vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-4.98vs Predicted
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23California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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5.32Stanford University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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10.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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6.0University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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5.34California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.1%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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12.81Santa Clara University0.590.0%1st Place
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12.98California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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11.86University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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13.83California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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12.98California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.8University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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13.29University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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17.39University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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8.25University of Hawaii1.650.1%1st Place
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14.22University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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15.97University of California at Santa Cruz-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.94University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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17.02California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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17.02California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holly Tullo | 12.3% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 14.7% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 11.2% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Lynch | 11.6% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 30.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Cook | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shiron Drusinsky | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.